原文所引用連結文章
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8內文提到:When all age groups are considered, and the underlying health of the individual is improved, the infection fatality rate falls, and natural immunity provides increasing benefit to the population as a whole. Currently, the infection fatality rate is only .01 percent for people below 40 years of age. Because the absolute risk reduction for these vaccines never exceeds 1.3 percent, there’s no mathematical benefit to vaccinating the population as a whole. The absolute risk that needs to be overcome turns out to be lower than the potential benefit that the shots can provide. For these reasons, this coercive, deceptive vaccine push will go down as the most destructive, most fraudulent medical experiment in modern history.
依實證醫學常用統計定義:
相對風險下降率(Relative risk reduction, RRR)
為試驗組與對照組發生事件率下降的比率,即∣EER-CER∣/ CER = ARR/CER。當outcome event發生的可能性很低時,此一指標容易高估治療療效。因此,一般在RCT中較傾向以NNT或ARR來表示療效。例如:對照組10,000人中最後罹病的人數為2人(0.02%),而治療組中最後罹病之人數為1人(0.01%),則RRR = ((2-1) / 2) x 100% = 50%。此意味著某一項藥物可以降低罹病率50%,但實際上它只降低了0.02%-0.01% = 0.01% 而已。和絕對風險下降率(ARR)相同的是,如果這是一項無效的治療,那麼此一差額為負值,是相對風險上升率(Relative risk increase, RRI)。
絕對風險下降率(Absolute risk reduction, ARR)
有時也稱為風險差,為試驗組與對照組事件發生率差的絕對值,即試驗組事件發生率(Experimental Event Rate, EER)減去對照組中事件發生率(Control Event Rate, CER)的絕對值(ARR=∣EER-CER∣)。如果這是一項有效的治療,那麼此一差額為正值,發生不良事件之風險下降。反之,如果這是一項無效的治療,那麼此一差額為負值,是絕對風險上升(absolute risk increase, ARI)。
因此,ARR可解讀為"罹病事件發生率"之增減值,與RRR代表"罹病事件發生率"之增減"比例"不可相提並論。